Thursday, December 12, 2013

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 England haven't beaten Australia in a Perth Test since 1978, and even that wasn't worth a regular Test win as Australia's main players were away doing Kerry Packer duty. Since then they've lost seven out of nine Tests, and each of the last six, at this venue; in those last six Tests here, they've averaged less than 21 runs per wicket with the bat and conceded almost 38 with the ball. Their last three defeats have been by margins of an innings and 48 runs (2002), 206 runs (2006) and 267 runs (2010). Given that England must avoid defeat to stay in the Ashes, these are not encouraging stats.

Australia have been unstoppable here against England, but their overall recent results here aren't quite as daunting, which is what Alastair Cook and Co will need to remember as they go into the Perth Test. Since 2006, Australia only have a 4-3 win-loss record here, with two defeats against South Africa and one against India offset by wins against England (twice), India and West Indies. In 2008, Australia lost twice in Perth: against an Indian team which was also trailing 2-0 in the series, they were beaten by 72 runs, while South Africa chased down a target of 414 for the loss of only four wickets later that year. Their most recent Test there also ended in defeat, by 309 runs against South Africa. In 2009 they beat a fairly ordinary West Indies side by only 35 runs, but that was followed by two emphatic results - a 267-run hammering of England, and an-innings-and-37-run win against an abject Indian team.

In these last seven Tests, Australia's batting average is only slightly more than their bowling average, but what's worrying for England is how poor their batsmen have been in the last six Tests here. Only two centuries have been scored by them during this period - 123 by Graham Thorpe in 1995 and 116 by Cook in 2006 - and there are only two other scores of more than 75. England's three top-order batsmen who've played Tests here - Cook, Kevin Pietersen and Ian Bell - have all got starts and a venue average of around 40, but none of them have imposed themselves on a match.

A month ago, a 2-0 scoreline may not have been expected. Even more startling would have been the fact that Australia are leading in the series and are just a win (or three draws) away from clinching the Ashes for the first time in six years.

If one thought the English side would show much more resilience in Adelaide, where the track is much slower and on the lines of what they might find back home, it was hard to believe what they dished out. First the bowling was pedestrian enough to allow Australia to take advantage and pile up 570 batting first before they capitulated for 172 in reply - a display so feeble that it would have shocked the staunchest of the English supporter.

Things got better in the second innings as England reached their first score of 200 in the series but were bowled out for 312 in a chase of 530 runs.

And now they play at the WACA. A ground traditionally known to be Australia's bastion, especially in Ashes cricket with England having won only one of the 11 Tests they have been played at this venue. Eight have been won by Australia and only two draws have resulted. Sounds like things already look difficult for England.

A word on the weather, it's going to be hot and the temperatures are expected to be in the high-30s range over the five days of the game - this could be a huge factor given that the teams would be looking to stack up their line-ups with quick bowlers.

Barring the fact that it is expected to be a bouncy track, there's no reason to believe that Australia will look to change their line-up from the one that played in the first two Tests - injuries excluded obviously.

And even though the WACA pitch could support the quick bowlers, the hot weather and the fact that Shane Watson can now be expected to be bowl a lot more, will dissuade the Aussies from toying with the idea of bringing in James Faulkner for Nathan Lyon.

England have a decision or two to make and their coach Andy Flower has already sounded out that he wouldn't be averse to taking tough decisions. He could well be referring to some of the shots that the English batsmen played in the Adelaide game - likes of Kevin Pietersen, Alastair Cook and Ian Bell included.

However, in terms of options, there's very little. Gary Ballance and Jonny Bairstow are two but have they done enough in the nets and tour games to impress Flower and co. to be selected for a Test match at the WACA where their inexperience will be sternly examined? I doubt that.

So to me, all seniors could well retain his place while Monty Panesar will be replaced by Tim Bresnan. The only other question is whether they will bring in one of the aforementioned batsmen for Ben Stokes but again, that would be unfair on the latter, who looked like he was getting into the groove in the second innings in Adelaide - both with the bat and ball.

And of course, Stokes was the quickest of the English bowlers on show as well.

Questions have been raised over Graeme Swann's continuing performances but it's been only two Tests in this series and it's not as if Panesar has been excellent with the ball either.